Mavs in the playoff... what say ye?

The Mavs are in their 12th consecutive playoff berth.  I've been in Dallas since 1994.  Soon after that, I would do work for Guy Medrow who was a season ticket holder and would be blessed by receiving several game offers in trade for web work.  It was when good ol' Stevie Nash was here and the Mavs were finding themselves.  A fresh and young Dirk Nowitzki with all the promise of being one of the great NBA players growing in stature and maturity.

Now, I attend the games, and I sit in the press box.  I've tried different techniques while watching the game.  I'm trying to find myself.  Do I focus on statistics?  As I watch the game, I sometimes track various unreported statistics.  You know, you can see that a team gets a count of rebounds, makes a percentage of shots, where the shots are that are being made and all of that is an attempt to provide the pieces of a synthetic statement of what has happened.  The theory goes on to say that IF things continue as they are and have had similar patterns in the past, then, the present is predictable.  For example, let's say that the Mavs are up by 10 points at the conclusion of the half.  Furthermore, let's say that statistically, when the Mavs lead by 10 points at the half, 79% of the time, they hold the lead and go on to win the game.  When you observe that kind of a statistic, you begin to assume that the game is mostly in hand.  Then, the other team comes out of the locker room and they go on a 7-0 run, thereby cutting the lead to three.   You find a statistic that says, "when a team opens the third quarter and goes on a 7 - 0 run...."  Get my drift?

I watch the game and the patterns and statistics are present; but, not always primary.  Here's kind of how I observe and collect my observations checked by the data.  It feels/seems like Dirk isn't shooting the ball as well as he did in previous years.  Is it just a feeling?  When I research, I notice that percentage comparison wise, Dirk shot .517 last season and .456 this season.  His percentage is for this year is "absolutely" lower than the previous season.  But is that enough to form a conclusion?  What if in 2010, more of his shots where within 17 feet of the basket on the average.  For many players, the closer you get to the basket, the greater the chance is that you'll put the rock in the hole.  (Note: Jason Kidd may be an exception to this).  

The measurements are typically offered in three positions: 

1. Points in the paint,
2. Points NOT in the paint that are WITHIN the three point arc,
3. finally, Three pointer. 

There is a bit of a distance from the paint to the three point line.  What if defense analysts have taken a position to their teams to say, keep him (Dirk)  in front of you, and instead of trying to block his shot, focus on body position and not allowing penetration.  Or, what if Dirk has figured out that the season is where you work on your playoff preparation and you don't want to necessarily give too much during the season so that the body will be there for you in order to respond when the call to duty arises.  What if, now, as an NBA champion, there's no more worries about the monkey on the back saying that greatness is not being one of the top scorers of NBA history, but, to have won a championship, one against the Miami Heat in their signature year of integrating "the three".

And so, here's where I must make the move to either speak and write as a fan who has the privilege of spending time with the team in the locker room and stand in awe of this opportunity, or look at this as a sports journalist and watch to see if I've got this right.  Is it hope that I would project that the Mavs can do well in the playoffs based on a theory of Dirk having acquired an understanding from history or is it the boy in me looking for a hero? 

The "x" factor in this is that this is a new team with no history in the playoff.  There are players on the team that have won it all, and others who've never been there.  A team is the collection of players that move in a cohesive direction led by the same man Rick Carlisle.  When you watch this season as it's come to a close, I have noticed that the rotations are still in flux.  I sense, that's part of the greatness of Rick Carlisle.  He has a stubbornness enough to support Odum for the team's sake and the strength to cut him for that same team's sake.  He appears to have the perfect balance of having the player's back and moving on from the player for the benefit of the team.  Point:  He'll be ready to make the necessary adjustments.  Vince Carter is rising.  He seems like a nice kid.  Speaking of "kid", Jason Kidd as the quarterback continues to be challenged due to his age.  Heck, speaking of age, the team as a whole is "old" in NBA terms.  What will this mean in the playoffs?  What is the best case scenario for experience to take its advantage?

Conclusion:  It comes down to belief.  Belief requires an object, it's not an intransitive concept.  Whatever this belief is for this team, it will be challenged at every possession.  The belief must withstand the scrutiny and pressure that comes with doubt.  The coaches will do their duty and prepare, but, the heart of the individual will have his own demons to wrestle.  Is Dirk still hungry?  If he doesn't succeed, he's achieved the goal last season.  Is Jet's determination enough to spread to the rookies and younger players?  What are the unspoken things?  Are there more doubts than belief?  Since this is the first playoff for this team, in my opinion, the first game regardless of where played will provide the answer.  If they win the first game, they will win the series, if they lose, the same will follow.  The first game, they will lay it on the line and give it their best.  If their best is good enough, they'll have established  their belief for that series.  If they lose, the doubt will win.  Ah, but what about will?  Who/What is the will of this team?  Last year, there was Berrea and Chandler to support Jet and Dirk.  This year, Delonte West appears to bring that refuse to lose mentality.  Where is the Chandler replacement?  If Brandon,Mahinmi, or Haywood don't bring that iron will, the Mavs will fail.  So, that is my analysis of the Mavs heading into the playoffs.  It will be a question of Belief and Will.  The answer will be provided in game #1.